The Housing Shortage

May 1, 2023

This post reminds us of one of Mark Twain’s famous quips: “There are lies. Damn lies. And statistics!”

An interesting piece in the Wall Street Journal ran recently on the U.S. housing shortage, and depending on the source, it’s as “few” as 1.7 million housing units or as many as $7.3 million units, comprised of single-family homes, apartments, condominiums and townhomes—even senior living facilities. Even in a country like the U.S., with around 142 million housing units, that’s quite a range. It all depends, of course, on how the numbers are counted.

Starting with the low end, John Burns Research & Consulting, a real estate advisory firm, pegs the housing shortage at 1.7 million. The Burns’ company uses demographics and vacancies and factors in the overbuilding that took place in the housing industry in the early 2000s. Realtor.com uses a more straightforward approach by calculating new household formation since 2012 at 15.6 million and the number of new-home starts during that period, or 9.03 million, which leaves a gap of 6.5 million. The National Low Income Housing Coalition (NHLHC) comes from the perspective of housing affordability, and namely, that there are only 7 million homes affordable for people with extremely low incomes. Because there are 11 million such households and NHLHC estimates that 3.3 million of those homes are occupied by people who aren’t extremely low income, the group pegs the shortage at 7.3 million. Then there is the Up for Growth number of 3.8 million. Up for Growth is a housing policy group focused on the housing shortage and arrives at its housing shortage number by estimating the total number of units needed as the number of households, plus the number of households that should have been formed but didn’t because housing wasn’t available, plus 5% to account for normal vacancy rates as housing units turn over.

As you see, it is a complicated and complex problem and politics aside, the lack of housing inventory is the main culprit to the high cost of housing- and not just in Sonoma County.

 

Ron represented me twice in recent years on the listing and sale of two investment properties. His vast knowledge and experience in real estate made for trouble free and expedient transactions. Ron’s communication and negotiation skills are top notch. Highlighting Ron’s genial personality, it was a pleasure to have him represent me.

— Glenn S.

Ron was a tremendous help during an extremely difficult transition for me after living in my house for 36 years.  He went far beyond what I expected in a RE Broker by helping to enhance the appeal of my house and by guiding me through all the challenges that came up from selling a rural property.  And he’s just a genuinely nice guy! His calm attentiveness and deep knowledge made the move bearable when I felt like giving up just from exhaustion. On top of that, he helped me acquire my current house which is so perfect for me during this new chapter of my life. A very happy ending!

— Sharon B.

Ron Welsh, the owner/broker of Sonoma County Properties Inc., has been nothing less than an angel in disguise when it came to the sale of my grandmothers property.

When my grandmother died at the age of 103, she left her only asset of a country property in Santa Rosa to her four children in equal shares. These are four senior citizen adults that did not typically see eye to eye. Ron was patient, understanding, unflappable, and made the process extremely easy. His experience in real estate transactions was evident and his experience in dealing with multiple obstreperous parties was clearly unmatched.

Ron kept the family apprised of every step in the process and was successful in selling my grandmothers (rather dilapidated) home in just a few days to the satisfaction of all parties. That was no easy feat.

I would highly recommend Ron and his team in any real estate transaction, whether that be buying or selling a home.

— Kathleen Pozzi

I found Ron to be the consummate professional. He is extremely skilled and accomplished at all phases of the sales process. His hard work and negotiating skills were the deciding factor in closing the sale of our home in less than 90 days at 97% of our asking price. That is a real accomplishment, as our home was priced at the upper end of the market where buyers were far and few between.

I would highly recommend Ron’s services for anybody looking to purchase or sell a home in this area.

— mwerneralsco

We were looking for a unique house with character. Ron took the time to understand our needs and was patient with us as we spent many months looking for the right house. He was always available to answer questions or tour properties, and didn’t push us to commit to something that wasn’t right. Ron was a calm, reassuring presence during our search. He knows both the real estate business and the local market. Ron is an experienced advocate you’ll be glad to have in your corner. He is the Realtor we would recommend to friends and family.

— MF Warren

We were able to hit our target date for listing and Ron had us priced right to get multiple offers within 48 hours. From that we were able to choose a strong buyer and close in under 3 weeks, still in October. What had seemed an impossible dream became our new reality thanks to Ron’s experience and ability to get us connected to the right people and complete our pre-sale tasks. Aside from all this Ron is simply a great person to know and work with. He is hands on (literally helping me tear down a false wall the tenants had erected) and was constantly extending offers to help in any way he can with the contractor and appliance deliveries. I strongly recommend Ron to anyone looking for a top quality real estate experience.

— Kevin E.

Ron has helped our family members buy two homes and sell another. I’ve also recommended him to several friends over the years – something I only do when I really trust someone to take good care of them. Everyone has really enjoyed working with him and they’ve become repeat customers of his now too. He knows Sonoma County so well and has a great mellow personality. except when you need him to really rally for you during price negotiations – the perfect combo you want in a realtor!

— Kelley K.

Ron negotiated our very challenging deal with multiple transacations and deadlines. This was definately the kind of situation the required experience. He went the extra mile to ensure that both our real estate sale and purchase closed on time. This was such a tricky process, I really don’t think it would have happened without Ron there to help us through!

— Nick S.

Ron Welsh, has been our real estate the past few months, He has conducted himself, very professional, has been very sincere in our needs of real estate. Dealing with past agents some were not very reliable, Ron was always on time with appointments. It has been a pleasure working with him.

— David & Linda R.

I’ve had 2 purchase and one sell experiences in my life so far; hands down Ron Welsh / Sonoma County Properties was best real estate experience I’ve had to date.

In the end, I felt like Ron was really on my side, advocating my position at every step. Thanks to him, our project is well on its way and we should have our new home for the next holidays.

— S Lietzke

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