Sonoma County Properties News

March 30, 2024

While the weather here in Sonoma County hasn’t really behaved liked spring lately, we are entering the spring season for home sales and we have a glimpse of “the new normal.” It’s actually a modest evolution from where we have been, with a market still limited by inventory. However, there seems to be a mood shift, and with it, some newfound activity that was missing throughout 2023. We’re not psychologists, yet it feels like people are ready to resume the part of their lives that had been suspended, or temporarily frozen, and that is making some moves and decisions – and investments, about their lives. And that means buying and selling real estate.

We are also gaining some insight on where the mortgage market is heading – or settling into, and again, the market is beginning to accept the reality of mortgage rates in the 6s, which is historically an affordable number. Throughout March, rates have been around 6.75% (technically 6.87% during the final week of March). There has been widespread speculation that the Federal Reserve would start cutting its Federal Funds Rate, which currently sits between 5.25% and 5.5%, as early as this summer. Those forecasts have become a bit cloudier as inflation spiked again to over 3% in February, and consumer-index data has not projected that the Fed is getting much closer to its inflation-rate target of 2%. Like weight-loss efforts and physical-training goals like getting your marathon mile below 8 minutes, or lowering your golf handicap a couple of points, the last 10-15% is always the hardest. Remember, inflation peaked at 9.1% in June 2022, and has been declining since then. 

Just a few days ago the Wall Street Journal ran a story with the headline: Mortgage Rates’ New Normal Will be Higher Than Hoped. The article was anchored by the fact that the yield gap between mortgage bonds and Treasuries is still around 1.5%, versus an historical average closer to 1%. That may not seem like much observed casually, but apparently that has a significant impact on the bond trading market, and specifically, mortgage-backed securities (bonds). Hence, economists at Freddie Mae recently increased their forecast for average 30-year fixed mortgage rates to be 6.4% on average in the fourth quarter 2024, from their prior view of 5.9%. They also are expecting an average rate of 6.2% in 2025. That’s disappointing to an industry that had hoped we’d be in the 5% range by 2025. It’s mindful to think that these are just forecasts, and as a wise man once said: “Economic forecasts have been wrong 9 out of the last 5 times.”

We close out this post with a brief comment on the big news of late, that the National Association of Realtors – and some of the other very large brokerage houses, have settled lawsuits associated with wrongful practices in the area of Realtor’ commissions. We don’t question the news value in these stories, as the events of late have been groundbreaking. However, to some degree – to us, this has been a case of “much ado about nothing,” as for the multiple decades that we have been buying and selling real estate on behalf of our clients, there was never a fixed fee for agents. If anything, we are happy to see that the new rulings will ensure that buyer agents get signed agreements to represent their home-buying clients, and this is a positive step toward ensuring compensation for the agents’ efforts.

As we roll into April and toward summer, if we can help our readers with buying or selling residential, commercial and associated real estate – including ranches and land, we’d love to have that conversation with you

 

Ron represented me twice in recent years on the listing and sale of two investment properties. His vast knowledge and experience in real estate made for trouble free and expedient transactions. Ron’s communication and negotiation skills are top notch. Highlighting Ron’s genial personality, it was a pleasure to have him represent me.

— Glenn S.

Ron was a tremendous help during an extremely difficult transition for me after living in my house for 36 years.  He went far beyond what I expected in a RE Broker by helping to enhance the appeal of my house and by guiding me through all the challenges that came up from selling a rural property.  And he’s just a genuinely nice guy! His calm attentiveness and deep knowledge made the move bearable when I felt like giving up just from exhaustion. On top of that, he helped me acquire my current house which is so perfect for me during this new chapter of my life. A very happy ending!

— Sharon B.

Ron Welsh, the owner/broker of Sonoma County Properties Inc., has been nothing less than an angel in disguise when it came to the sale of my grandmothers property.

When my grandmother died at the age of 103, she left her only asset of a country property in Santa Rosa to her four children in equal shares. These are four senior citizen adults that did not typically see eye to eye. Ron was patient, understanding, unflappable, and made the process extremely easy. His experience in real estate transactions was evident and his experience in dealing with multiple obstreperous parties was clearly unmatched.

Ron kept the family apprised of every step in the process and was successful in selling my grandmothers (rather dilapidated) home in just a few days to the satisfaction of all parties. That was no easy feat.

I would highly recommend Ron and his team in any real estate transaction, whether that be buying or selling a home.

— Kathleen Pozzi

I found Ron to be the consummate professional. He is extremely skilled and accomplished at all phases of the sales process. His hard work and negotiating skills were the deciding factor in closing the sale of our home in less than 90 days at 97% of our asking price. That is a real accomplishment, as our home was priced at the upper end of the market where buyers were far and few between.

I would highly recommend Ron’s services for anybody looking to purchase or sell a home in this area.

— mwerneralsco

We were looking for a unique house with character. Ron took the time to understand our needs and was patient with us as we spent many months looking for the right house. He was always available to answer questions or tour properties, and didn’t push us to commit to something that wasn’t right. Ron was a calm, reassuring presence during our search. He knows both the real estate business and the local market. Ron is an experienced advocate you’ll be glad to have in your corner. He is the Realtor we would recommend to friends and family.

— MF Warren

We were able to hit our target date for listing and Ron had us priced right to get multiple offers within 48 hours. From that we were able to choose a strong buyer and close in under 3 weeks, still in October. What had seemed an impossible dream became our new reality thanks to Ron’s experience and ability to get us connected to the right people and complete our pre-sale tasks. Aside from all this Ron is simply a great person to know and work with. He is hands on (literally helping me tear down a false wall the tenants had erected) and was constantly extending offers to help in any way he can with the contractor and appliance deliveries. I strongly recommend Ron to anyone looking for a top quality real estate experience.

— Kevin E.

Ron has helped our family members buy two homes and sell another. I’ve also recommended him to several friends over the years – something I only do when I really trust someone to take good care of them. Everyone has really enjoyed working with him and they’ve become repeat customers of his now too. He knows Sonoma County so well and has a great mellow personality. except when you need him to really rally for you during price negotiations – the perfect combo you want in a realtor!

— Kelley K.

Ron negotiated our very challenging deal with multiple transacations and deadlines. This was definately the kind of situation the required experience. He went the extra mile to ensure that both our real estate sale and purchase closed on time. This was such a tricky process, I really don’t think it would have happened without Ron there to help us through!

— Nick S.

Ron Welsh, has been our real estate the past few months, He has conducted himself, very professional, has been very sincere in our needs of real estate. Dealing with past agents some were not very reliable, Ron was always on time with appointments. It has been a pleasure working with him.

— David & Linda R.

I’ve had 2 purchase and one sell experiences in my life so far; hands down Ron Welsh / Sonoma County Properties was best real estate experience I’ve had to date.

In the end, I felt like Ron was really on my side, advocating my position at every step. Thanks to him, our project is well on its way and we should have our new home for the next holidays.

— S Lietzke

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